

Probability of ‘forgetting’
Explanation of the variables:
P(F): Probability of forgetting. This lies between 0 and 1
M: Memory strength. It describes how well the information is anchored in the memory. A high value for M reduces the probability of forgetting.
R: Relevance. The more relevant information is, the more it is remembered and the less likely it is to be forgotten.
P: Perception. Describes the intensity with which the information is absorbed. A high intensity of perception reduces forgetting.
SM: Mental State. This value influences the ability to perceive and retain information. A high value means a stable mental state and reduces forgetting.
t: Time – Time. The probability of forgetting increases with increasing time.



Interpretation:
This formula is based on an exponential decay model, similar to the model of radioactive decay or other forms of memory loss over time. When memory strength, relevance, perception and psychological state are all high, the value in the exponent is very large, and P of F approaches 0, which means that the probability of forgetting is low. However, as time t increases, the exponent becomes smaller, bringing P(F) closer to 1 – forgetting becomes more likely.